Updated El Nino Forecast: How It Impacts Michigan’s Summer

If you were hoping for an El Niño-fueled Michigan summer with cooler temperatures, freakish storms, or a heatwave that could (mercifully) melt your Crocs—you're out of luck. According to the weather nerds at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño is officially not happening this summer.

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El Niño Is Officially “Not Active”

The National Weather Service's (NWS) Climate Prediction Center officially updated the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status to "Not Active." No big Pacific drama means Michigan's weather will stay its usual chaotic self.

What a Neutral ENSO Means for Michigan

There's an 82% chance we'll stay in this neutral phase for the rest of the summer. No El Niño and no La Niña, but that doesn't mean Michigan won't do what Michigan does best: the potential for humidity you can swim through, followed by a couple weeks of drought, capped off by a pop-up thunderstorm that may or may not compel you to start building an ark.

Any of these is possible in any order. That's the joy of a Pure Michigan Summer.

Looking Ahead: Winter Could Be a Different Story

But—and you knew one was coming—there is a slim chance, about 41%, that La Niña could swoop in by winter, which could mean a colder and snowier winter. But, for now, it's business as usual.

Mosquitoes, Humidity, and Heat Index Alerts—Oh My!

So go ahead and schedule your outdoor event with the confidence that El Niño won't mess with you, only Michigan's unpredictable weather patterns, and mosquitoes large enough to carry a toddler. Even without El Niño, WITL reports that we could be in for a "hotter summer" than in recent years.

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And the most dreaded two words heard during our summers: Heat. Index. Makes me sweat just thinking about it.